“It’s not ideal to blow 17+ point leads twice already but they have the right pieces in play to make a deep run if they stay healthy.” “They’ve been competitive in every game,” added Lucas. You can make a case they have the league’s best player, and if it wasn’t for 2 mind-melting collapses, they would be 4-0 and likely near the top of everyone’s power rankings with wins over the Bills and Dolphins in their back pocket. Buy low: Baltimore RavensĪ team that lost but we are still high on overall, thus creating more value in the market long-termīaltimore is perhaps the most polarizing team in the NFL right now. Officially it’s a pass for me this week, but the Vikes inevitable collapse is very much on my radar. Considering their preseason win total was 8.5, it’s a decent spot to sell high, especially with the return game at Lambeau Field looming in Week 17. If you don’t trust Chicago to cover on Sunday, maybe target the lookahead spot against Miami and hope for some favorable injury news.Īnother way to play it would be going under 10.5 wins, which is a widely available number. Minnesota is favored this week against the Bears but will be a road underdog the following week in Miami if Tua returns for the Dolphins. “Barely beating an Andy Dalton led Saints team and Swiss cheese D Lions team tells me it’s all smoke and mirrors,” added Lucas. After four weeks, Kirk is 23rd out of 32 qualifying QBs in EPA/CPOE (expected points added/completion percentage over expectation) despite having a healthy complement of weapons around him and a new offensive-minded head coach pulling the strings. When you look up “sell high” in the dictionary, you see a picture of Kirk Cousins. Sell high: Minnesota VikingsĪ team that won but we’re not convinced they’re for real just yet Considering we already have exposure, I think it’s best to sit tight this week, but I will be looking to add more Niners shares down the road. I’m happy to be on the right side of the market for now, but I also believe this is a short-term peak, especially with the Rams trending down. I expect their defense to be tested thoroughly during this stretch, and I think we’ll develop a much better sense of their chances of playing deep into January. From there, the road gets tougher with a second game in the eastern time zone at Atlanta, followed by the Chiefs at home and then the return game against the Rams. San Fran’s defense leads the NFL in EPA/play and gets the honor of facing the league’s most inaccurate QB this week in Baker Mayfield and a sputtering Panthers offense. Their defense is elite and will always keep them in the game.” “They have a ton of speed on offense and can show so many different looks it really keeps their opponents on their toes. “Jimmy G is slowly getting the rust off and looking more comfortable out there,” said Lucas. San Francisco has pulled even with Los Angeles as the favorite to win the division with an early leg up on the tiebreaker. Slingshot engaged! Last week we recommended buying the Niners to win in the NFC West, and their win over the Rams on Monday night did exactly what we hoped for in the market. Stock up: San Francisco 49ersĪ team that won and their odds are still in a reasonable range to buy Any official wagers I make will be clearly stated and added to the official portfolio at the bottom, and as always, you can track all futures bets in real time on my spreadsheet. Just like prior columns, we will be graced with the analysis and insight of Zachary Lucas, the head oddsmaker at TwinSpires. That might sound complicated, but it’s basically just making small investments throughout the season which should reduce the impact of volatility on our portfolio over the long haul. Now that we’re in-season, the goal of this column each week is to sift through the risers and fallers and identify value opportunities in the market by implementing a “ dollar cost averaging strategy.
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